Tag Archives: Victor Shih

Devaluation yuan pondered amid trade war exchanges – Victor Shih

China’s financial institutions ponder on the pros and cons of a currency devaluation as the effects of the trade war with the US start to kick in. While devaluation is on the agenda, it would be a tricky road, says financial analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation,¬†at CapitalWatch.

The Belt and Road initiative: all roads lead to China (updated)

One of the major global initiatives by China was the massive Belt and Road Initiative, reviving the old silk roads. In May 2017 a major international conference showed what our experts were already expecting: now all roads lead to China. Even countries who suffered from difficult relations with China, including both Koreas, appeared in Beijing.Larger than the former Marshall Plan after the Second World War, OBOR is going to redefine global trade.

Trade war will lead to higher consumer prices – Victor Shih

Tariffs in the ongoing trade war are taxes, so it is unavoidable consumer prices will go up, says financial analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, at The Point. Some increases might be taken by the distributors, and consumers are not yet worried because the US economy is now doing very well, Shih says. But that could change in the months to come when the effects of the trade war kick in.

Currency devaluation: a tricky way to fight the trade war – Victor Shih

Devaluating the Chinese Yuan can be an attractive, but also dangerous way for China to deal with the effect of the ongoing trade war, says financial and political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation¬†to Reuters. ” It is likely that corruption is returning, which will undermine Chinese capital control measures.”

No wide-spread China meddling in US elections – Victor Shih

Following the investigation into Russia meddling into US elections, California Congressman Jeff Denham has also accused China of the same. While there have been some minor spying incidents, political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, does not see a similar effort for interference from China, he tells Politifact.

How the central bank dresses up its figures – Victor Shih

China’s central bank PBOC is dressing up its figures. Financial analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, has for Bloomberg a look at…

Why China does not use its consumer power in the trade war, yet – Victor Shih

The developing trade war between China and the US focuses on tariffs for commodities, while China could hurt the US really nasty by deploying its consumer power by boycotting products, tourism and US-related education. Political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, explains in Bloomberg why China has not done so.

Next in the trade war, the consumers? – Shaun Rein/Victor Shih

China has been reluctantly been shooting back with tariffs at US imports up to now in the Donald Trump trade war. It might be even more reluctant to use the powerful tool of its consumers in the trade war, says political analyst Victor Shih in the Financial Post. But it could, and Apple and Starbucks should prepare, says business analyst Shaun Rein on Fox News.

Reducing China’s trade deficit with US$ 200 billion sounds impossible – Victor Shih

Rumors say China is willing to offer a reduction of its annual trade deficit with the US by US$200 billion. Even if China would be willing to do so, it would almost be “difficult to contemplate.”, says political analyst Victor Shih to Bloomberg.

Why the central bank might start printing money again – Victor Shih

We have seen this before, says financial analyst Victor Shih about the efforts by the financial authorities in China to reduce debts. In 2014 they tried the same, and in 2015, 2016 the PBOC, China’s central bank, started to print money again. When economic growth comes under a certain level, that will happen again, he tells Bloomberg.