Negotiators at both China and the White House are figuring out what kind of trade deal might be possible, while the trade war is still moving on. Leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, looks into the next moves for both parties for the South China Morning Post.
The South China Morning Post:
While the deep-rooted issues could take years, perhaps even decades, for China to properly address, some trade experts theorise that there could be some partial wins to be had in the short time remaining before the March deadline.
Apart from Beijing’s pledges to purchase more American products, a deal could also include commitments to more quickly remove equity caps or joint venture requirements in some sectors in China.
The country could also easily strengthen enforcement of intellectual property rights and make a “structured agreement to keep talking about more intractable issues such as technology transfer,” said Arthur Kroeber, head of research with China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics.
“USTR Robert Lighthizer and the trade and security hardliners could probably live with a restricted deal so long as it offered enough space for the US to keep using investment restrictions, export controls and sanctions, and provided a window for more tariffs to be imposed if China fails to make what the US defines as progress,” Kroeber said.
He added that Lighthizer would want to keep the existing tariffs in place and use the threat of additional levies as his bargaining chip.
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