5-year plan: no show of strength – Arthur Kroeber

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Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Details about the new 5-year plan start to emerge. But political analyst Arthur Kroeber does not see a strongman Xi Jinping pushing ahead with reforms, rather the contrary, he tells Bloomberg. The inability to abandon population control all together shows that, he says.

Bloomberg:

The party communique announcing the change reaffirmed family planning as a basic national policy, despite long-standing calls by economists and demographers for more dramatic reforms to avoid population declines and complete China’s transition to a developed economy.

“The inability to scrap the childbirth-limit idea altogether is indicative of the fatal difficulty the party has on surrendering control of anything,” said Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and managing director at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm. “The failure to go for full abolition reflects a baseline view that the party must keep its fingers in everyone’s business all the time. And this stance is inimical to the kind of innovation-driven, consumer-oriented economy they say they want to create.”

More in Bloomberg.

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