Blog Archives

Football transfers under threat after market reshuffle – Victor Shih

The recent downturn in the stock market and the government restrictions on money capital transfers might hit transfers in China´s football leagues, says financial analyst Victor Shih to Associated Press. “It is a general problem for wealthy people in China who are major shareholders in companies,”

China´s unsustainable debts – Victor Shih

China has accumulated debts US$25 trillion and because of the relative high interest rates, that level of debt is unsustainable, argues financial analyst Victor Shih at the USC U.S.-China Institute. And when China gets into trouble, there is no IMF-style institution with enough capital to save it. A crashing stock market also does not help.

SOE reforms: window dressing – Victor Shih

Much noise has been produced in the past year on how state-owned companies might or might not reform. Political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation does not see that much genuine reform, he tells the China Economic Review.

Stock markets: more room to fall – Victor Shih

China´s stock markets might have dropped already more than 30%, but there is more room to fall, tells financial analyst Victor Shih in Quartz. Existing sell orders will put downward pressure on the market, he says.

The wealthy at China´s legislature – Victor Shih

China´s lawmakers are preparing for their annual sessions of the advisory CPPCC and the National People´s Congress. Among them a large amount of influential business people. Political analyst Victor Shih explains the interaction between business and politics in China in the New York Times.

Violence in Hong Kong will hurt China – Victor Shih

Many expected a more violent end to the protests in Hong Kong, but not financial expert Victor Shih, he tells in the Institutional Investor. He was not surprised by the cautious approach Beijing displayed in Hong Kong.

The interaction between political and financial elites – Victor Shih

Scholar Victor Shih is interviewed by the China Daily, on how he analyzed the links between different factions in China´s politics. A dive into China´s capital markets since 2009, achieved Victor Shih high praise as one of the first to document China´s serious debts.

Manipulating financial data – Victor Shih

China has a long tradition of manipulating its financial data to meet its political needs. That ability is still prominently present, also today, says political scientist Victor Shih in the Global and Mail. China´s economy is much weaker than official figures suggest.

Yi Gang has best cards to become PBOC-governor – Victor Shih

Speculations have been mounting the current governor or China´s central bank PBOC, Zhou Xiaochuan, is up for retirement soon. Bloomberg asked financial experts who they expect might be the next central banker. Financial expert Victor Shih explains why he puts his cards on Yi Gang.

Why China cannot cut its banker´s salaries – Victor Shih

China has announced it will cut salaries of key managers at its state-owned banks. A bad idea, tells political scienist and financial analyst Victor Shih in Businessweek. An exodus of bankers would cause “a big mess”.