China´s leaders are getting material together to prepare their next 5-year plan, that will be finalized at the National People´s Congress in 2016. Political analyst Victor Shih tries to differentiate between the window dressing and the real issues at Bloomberg.
The central government wrongly used the upswing in stock markets as a proxy for real reforms, says associate professor Victor Shih in the Washington Post. Until those shares came down and created mayhem in China and globally. “”In dictatorships, when things are going well, nobody wants to end the party.”
Debts are high on the agenda of the central and local governments, as local resources to pay debts of get capital for investments diminish, tells associate-professor Victor Shih in Bloomberg. The efforts of the central government to relieve local governments from debts might not help everybody.
One of the reasons for China to drop the value of its currency was to get into line with the IMF requirements to become a global reserve currency. Much of the country´s actions is about prestige, says associate professor Victor Shih at WFDD.
The recent downturn in the stock market and the government restrictions on money capital transfers might hit transfers in China´s football leagues, says financial analyst Victor Shih to Associated Press. “It is a general problem for wealthy people in China who are major shareholders in companies,”
China has accumulated debts US$25 trillion and because of the relative high interest rates, that level of debt is unsustainable, argues financial analyst Victor Shih at the USC U.S.-China Institute. And when China gets into trouble, there is no IMF-style institution with enough capital to save it. A crashing stock market also does not help.
Much noise has been produced in the past year on how state-owned companies might or might not reform. Political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation does not see that much genuine reform, he tells the China Economic Review.