Financial expert Victor Shih dives into the 2024 figures at the annual NPC and concludes China cannot roll over debts anymore and finance its budget like it did before. He tells Bloomberg that central state policies have increasingly replaced a market-driven economy.Read More →

China’s economy is dealing with some tough years, writes leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in ChinaFile, especially now that it does not have enough tools with debts and deflation like it did in the past. “So we need to brace for the consequences of the Xi model: slower growth in China, a big rise in Chinese technology exports, and more protectionism in the rest of the world,” he writes.Read More →

Rating agencies have been lowering China’s rating. Renowned economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, does not see an acute financial problem for the country, but costs for financing its debts will constrain its economic growth, not only for the quarters to come but for the next few years, he tells CNBC.Read More →

Leading economist Arthur Kroeber discusses China’s economic state and looks at the gloomy predictions from other economists. We do not have enough post-COVID-19 data to draw firm conclusions, he argues, and goes on to take down three schools of gloom in current economic thinking about China’s future, at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Read More →

A default of the US is highly unlikely, even in the current chaotic political setting in the United States, says leading China economist Arthur Kroeber, but today the risks for China are much higher than during the 2008-2009 crisis. A crisis would not offer an opportunity to build an international financial system around the Renminbi, next to the US dollar, he adds in the ChinaFile.Read More →

China’s real economic problem: they increase capital spending, but are not able to improve productivity that is already at a shockingly low level, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, at a panel at CSIS discussing with Thomas Orlik, Chief Economist for Bloomberg Economics, and author of the book, China: The Bubble That Never Pops. While an economic collapse is unlikely, a grinding halt to economic development might be its largest danger, Kroeber adds.Read More →

Almost half a year ago the real estate giant Evergrande started to fall apart under its 300 billion US dollar debts, but the collapse – expected by many – has not yet emerged. Financial analyst Sara Hsu explains in the Commercial Observer why this collapse has not happened.Read More →